Elon Musk’s bold declaration that Teslas would be driving around in Austin with no one in them by June certainly caught the attention of many. However, as the year progressed, it became evident that Tesla’s self-driving ambitions were not quite as close to reality as initially claimed.
Throughout 2025, Musk made several promises and predictions regarding Tesla’s self-driving capabilities. From the elimination of safety drivers to the widespread availability of Robotaxi services in major metro areas, the expectations were high. However, as the year came to a close, it was clear that Tesla’s Robotaxi army had not conquered the world as envisioned.
In June, Tesla did launch its Robotaxi service in Austin, but contrary to Musk’s statement, safety riders were still present in the vehicles. While the company has been trialing driverless rides and showcasing Cybercabs, the scale of deployment promised by Musk has yet to materialize.
Musk’s claims of removing safety drivers by the end of the year have not come to fruition, despite recent demonstrations of autonomous capabilities. The service currently operates in Austin and San Francisco, with plans to expand to other cities in the future.
On the ground in Austin, the reality of Tesla’s Robotaxi service paints a different picture from the grand promises. Wait times for a ride can be significant, and the visual presence of Tesla’s autonomous taxis pales in comparison to competitors like Waymo.
While Tesla’s foray into self-driving technology is undoubtedly groundbreaking, the road to full autonomy is proving to be longer and more challenging than anticipated. As we look ahead to 2026 and beyond, it remains to be seen when Tesla’s Robotaxi fleet will truly achieve the scale and efficiency that Musk has promised. A recent analysis cited by Electrek has raised doubts about Tesla’s Robotaxi project in Austin, indicating that only about three dozen Robotaxis may be currently operating in the city. This finding is in stark contrast to Elon Musk’s previous claims that the fleet would be rapidly expanding.
In October, Musk confidently stated that Tesla would increase its Austin fleet to 500 cars by the end of 2025, with more than 1,000 cars in the Bay Area. However, the reality is far from this vision, with the Bay Area having fewer than 150 cars in operation. Musk’s assertion that the Robotaxi fleet would double in November, despite not even reaching 250 vehicles at the time, raises questions about the company’s ability to fulfill its promises.
Furthermore, Tesla’s Full Self-Driving (FSD) technology is also falling short of expectations. Musk had previously predicted that unsupervised FSD would be available by the end of the year, a promise that has yet to materialize. While Musk claims that drivers can now text and drive using Tesla’s technology, true unsupervised FSD remains elusive, as evidenced by the failure to deliver on a hands-free coast-to-coast drive promised back in 2017.
The complexity of achieving full vehicle autonomy cannot be overstated, and no automaker has been able to fully deliver on this promise. It is crucial for companies to be transparent about the limitations of their technology in order to build trust with the public.
Musk’s promises hold significant weight with investors, as Tesla’s stock price has reached record highs based on autonomy promises. However, the company must deliver on its commitments in order to maintain investor confidence. The repeated failure to meet deadlines could lead to investor fatigue, unless Tesla provides a more realistic timeline for the launch of its autonomous vehicles.
As 2025 comes to a close, it is clear that Tesla has not yet achieved its ambitious goals in the realm of autonomous driving. The company must address the challenges it faces and be transparent about its progress in order to fulfill its promises and maintain the trust of investors and the public.