Tesla Poised for Strong Q3 Sales Amidst Pending EV Tax Credit Changes
While Tesla experienced a slow start in 2025 in terms of deliveries, the upcoming third quarter could potentially be one of the best in the company’s history. The United States is expected to play a significant role in boosting sales and reversing the earlier sluggish performance.
Recently, the United States’ House of Representatives passed President Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill,” which is set to be signed into law before the July 4 deadline. This bill will bring an end to the $7,500 EV tax credit on September 30, 2025, making electric vehicles more expensive for consumers.
Individuals earning under $150,000 per year, heads of households earning under $225,000 annually, and couples filing jointly with an income below $300,000 are eligible for the tax credit. The decision to end the tax credit aligns with the Trump administration’s pro-fossil fuels stance and its opposition to what the President refers to as an “EV mandate.”
As the tax credit comes to a close, consumers have a limited window of three months to take advantage of the incentive. This impending deadline is expected to drive sales for all EV manufacturers, with Tesla likely to emerge as a key beneficiary due to its high volume of vehicles.
To further stimulate sales, Tesla may introduce additional incentives such as 0% APR financing, special leasing or financing offers, or promotional deals like the recent “Red, White, and Blue” free paint option available until July 14. These strategies could significantly boost sales for Tesla in the current quarter.
Despite a slight decline in deliveries compared to previous years, Tesla remains on track to achieve approximately 1.4 million deliveries by the end of 2025. Historically, the company’s strongest quarters have been in the second half of the year, with Q4 2024 recording 495,570 deliveries, Q4 2023 with 484,507 deliveries, and Q3 2024 with 462,890 deliveries.