Benchmark has reaffirmed its “Buy” rating and $475 price target on Tesla stock (NASDAQ: TSLA) as the company gears up to announce its third-quarter vehicle deliveries in the near future.
Tesla stock closed the third quarter at $444.72 per share, giving the electric vehicle manufacturer a market cap of $1.479 trillion at the end of Q3 2025.
Benchmark analyst Mickey Legg has provided estimates for Tesla’s third-quarter deliveries, predicting that the company will deliver around 442,000 vehicles. While this estimate falls slightly below the 448,000-unit consensus, it still represents a significant increase from the 384,000 vehicles delivered in Q2 2025. Some more optimistic estimates suggest Tesla’s deliveries could reach the mid-460,000s.
In anticipation of Tesla’s Q3 results, other firms have also expressed positive outlooks. Deutsche Bank has raised its delivery forecast to 461,500, while Piper Sandler has increased its price target to $500 after assessing market conditions in China. Cantor Fitzgerald has reiterated an “Overweight” rating and $355 price target for TSLA stock.
The momentum of Tesla’s stock has been driven in part by the upcoming expiration of the federal EV tax credit in the United States. Analysts believe that this impending deadline has incentivized buyers to make their vehicle purchases sooner, contributing to the anticipated strong delivery report for Q3.
Despite the positive expectations surrounding Tesla’s Q3 results, Benchmark has cautioned that there may be some volatility in the coming quarter. The stock has surged nearly 30% in September, setting high expectations for the delivery report. However, Benchmark warns that there could be potential volatility if regional mix or average selling prices underperform.
Looking ahead, Benchmark anticipates policy-driven fluctuations after Q3 as certain EV incentives and credits tighten or expire in select markets. This could lead to demand fluctuations in the fourth quarter and impact the order book for Tesla.
As Tesla prepares to report its third-quarter vehicle deliveries, investors and analysts alike eagerly await the results, which are expected to reflect the company’s continued growth and market performance.